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More Deaths Expected in Malta than Anywhere Else in Europe Due to Heatwaves
August 17 2024 14:10 by PCLMedia
Rising temperatures are predicted to have deadlier consequences in Malta than in any other European country, as climate change continues to intensify across the continent in the coming decades. According to a landmark study published in the medical journal *Lancet*, Malta is expected to experience the highest increase in heat-related mortality rates among European nations.
The study, which examined projected changes in mortality rates across 1,300 regions and 854 cities in Europe from now until 2100, highlights the grave impact of climate change, particularly in southern Europe. As temperatures rise and populations age, the study found that a 3°C increase in temperature could result in 95 more heat-related deaths per 100,000 people annually in Malta, significantly higher than the European average of 15 additional deaths per 100,000.
The study considered several temperature rise scenarios, ranging from 1.5°C and 2°C increases—aligned with the Paris climate targets—to more extreme scenarios of 3°C and 4°C increases. These more severe scenarios reflect current climate policy trajectories or the absence of effective climate action.
In addition to rising temperatures, the study factored in demographic trends such as population aging, increased life expectancy, and declining fertility rates to assess the full impact of climate change on mortality. The findings are particularly alarming for Malta, where the number of heat-related deaths could triple from 78 per year (between 1991 and 2020) to 258 deaths annually with just a 1.5°C increase in temperature. A 3°C rise could result in over 600 heat-related deaths each year, while a 4°C increase could lead to more than 1,000 deaths annually in Malta alone.
The situation is similarly dire across southern Europe, where countries like Spain, Italy, and Greece are also expected to suffer significant increases in heat-related mortality. These regions, including Malta, are already grappling with the effects of increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves. For instance, during the summer of 2023, a series of extreme heatwaves swept across southern Europe, including Malta, where temperatures soared above 40°C. The relentless heat caused significant disruptions, including lengthy power outages and public health crises. In Malta, these heatwaves led to 80 excess deaths within just 10 days after July 24, many of which were linked to heat exhaustion and dehydration, as confirmed by Health Superintendent Charmaine Gauci.
Meanwhile, cold-related deaths in Malta are also projected to increase, albeit at a slower pace. The current rate of 315 cold-related deaths per year could rise to 440 by 2100, contributing to a total of over 1,400 deaths per year due to temperature extremes if global temperatures rise by 4°C.
Overall, the study underscores the urgent need for robust climate action to prevent the catastrophic health impacts projected for Malta and other vulnerable regions. Without significant interventions to curb global warming, the death toll from both heat and cold across Europe could exceed half a million annually by the end of the century, with southern European countries bearing the brunt of this tragedy.
As climate scientists warn that 2024 could become the hottest year on record—following a summer in 2023 that saw unprecedented temperatures—the findings of this study serve as a stark reminder of the lethal consequences of inaction on climate change. For Malta and the rest of southern Europe, the message is clear: the time to act is now, before rising temperatures claim even more lives.
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